双汇发展（000895.SZ）：低价原料、提价贡献弹性，Q4有望延续
作者：方振 董广阳 于芝欢
来源：华创食饮
主要观点
事项
19Q3业绩超预期。19年前三季度收入419.68亿元，同比+14.99%；归母净利39.43亿元，同比+7.86%；扣非净利润37.49亿元，同比+9.02%；经营性现金流净额26.84亿元，同比-32.13%。19Q3营业收入165.53亿元，同比+28.51%，归母净利15.44亿元，同比+23.88%。
评论
年内5次提价拉动肉制品盈利提升。19Q3肉制品收入68.2亿元，同比+9.0%，增长由价升贡献，肉制品销量43万吨同比持平，吨价1.59万元，同比+9.0%，经营利润率达21.5%，同比+0.4pct，环比上升5.4pcts，创新高。预计盈利提升主要源于提价效应，但低成本原料、技术及工艺创新亦综合对冲了成本上行。展望四季度，因公司对肉制品采取被动提价策略，随猪价持续上涨，预计公司年内仍将有提价举动。
低成本原料带来弹性，头均净利创新高。19Q3屠宰收入105.5亿元，同比+40.6%， Q3屠宰量269万头，同比-28.3%，19Q3行业定点生猪屠宰量4427万头，同比-24.3%，公司市占率提升速度放缓；利润端，头均利润179.3元/头，同比+244.8%，判断利润提升主要来自于冻肉库存释放及进口肉增加所致。19Q3生鲜肉销量37万吨，同比-2.6%，生鲜肉销售均价28.5元/kg，同比+44.4%。
低成本原料储备达历史高点，预计Q4业绩改善趋势延续。19Q3公司与罗特克斯关联交易达18.7亿元，18年以来整体进口量呈现U形，以海关进口猪肉均价测算，18Q3/18Q4/19Q1/19Q2/19Q3进口量分别5.51/1.54/2.83/8.78/11.8万吨，于19Q3出现大幅增长，原因在于中美贸易摩擦提高进口猪肉关税导致中美猪肉价差缩小，但在国内猪价持续上涨下中美猪肉价差优势进一步显现，目前中国生猪价格约为美国5倍水平，同时公司亦从欧洲地区进口猪肉。冻肉方面，19Q3末公司存货77.6亿元，达历史高点。同时公司亦增加副产品猪毛肠的关联交易金额平抑成本波动，预计在19Q4猪价持续上涨趋势下，低成本原料使用及提价效应将继续释放业绩弹性。
投资建议
盈利预测、估值及投资评级：短期看，低成本原料、提价释放公司业绩弹性，长期看，屠宰行业加快整合趋势不改，公司借助产业链一体化优势有望熨平波动，肉制品经营改善趋势不变。我们上调2019-2021年EPS预测至1.63/1.77/1.97(原预测为1.50/1.55/1.71元)，对应增速为10.1%/8.5%/11.2%，目前股价对应PE为16/15/13倍，考虑公司业绩改善带来估值修复，上调目标价至31.5元，对应20年约18X估值，维持评级“推荐”。
风险提示
风险提示：中美贸易摩擦加剧；猪价涨幅超预期；肉制品改善不及预期等。
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