郭思治: 本月大市初呈先低後高之形态
帝(峰)证券及资产管理有限公司行政总裁郭思治称,昨天(3日)大市先跌而後升,恒指早市先低开211点至25,831点,其後再进一步跌至25,809点方渐趋喘定并出现缓步回升,至午後更一度倒升150点至26,192点,最後报收26,110点,较上日升67点,惟全日总成交仅625亿元。
10月份只过了两个交易日,惟大市似已初呈先低後高之形态,恒指暂是由2日之低位25,778点升至3日之高位26,192点,即在两日内已有414点之上升波幅,首先,一个月之高低位是不会同时出现於两日之内,加上414点之波幅亦不可能满足月内之所需,故在本月余下之交易日,定必有更高或更低之指数出现,单从技术上看,假如恒指暂不再低过25778点,则在先低後高之形态主导下,只要大市有约1,000点左近之升幅,恒指已可再次重越10天线(26,155点),20天线(26,520点)及50天线(26,416点),当然,情况只是表示大市暂摆脱进一步试底之威胁而已。
记得9月份恒指亦曾由3日之低位25,498点升至13日之高位27,366点,即在高台时恒指曾一度重越10天,20天及50天线,但碍於交投疏落,缺乏动力作进一步之推升,故大市最终掉头而回,至本月2日之低位25,778点,故即使本月大市能在中旬之前稍作推升,惟情况可能会同9月份之市势相似。
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