中国燃气(00384.HK)：俄气东入，东北天然气用气量潜力大，维持“买入”评级，目标价37.4港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：37.4港元
投资要点
东北三省用气量低。2018年东北三省用气量为141.56亿立方米（包含大庆、吉林和盘锦油田自用气40亿方），黑龙江省用气量为42.2亿方，辽宁和吉林2018年用气量一共为99.36亿方。中国燃气2018年在东北三省的销气量为20.4亿方，其中黑龙江销气量为6亿方，吉林和辽宁销气量为14.37亿方。
黑龙江首先受益于俄气的输入。2019年12月1日俄气将通过黑河进入国内，黑龙江省首先受益于俄气的输入，省内也采取了加大天然气使用的配套政策，如加大城市管道建设、储气能力建设、鼓励取暖用天然气、工业煤改气等。
中国燃气在东北三省布局早，投资规模大。中国燃气在东北三省120个城镇开展了燃气管网投资建设，已获得特许经营权范围覆盖人口5007万人，已接驳城市管道燃气用户2629万人，尚有农村1317万人，城市1061万人需要开发。公司在城镇燃气、长输管线、供热、分布式能源、合同能源管理、加气站等项目的总投资额超过100亿元。
居民取暖用气及工业煤改气成为黑龙江用气量增长引擎，交通用气也将持续增长，不会被电动车取代。随着城市的发展，原先提供供暖业务的燃煤锅炉厂变成了城市核心区域，地块价值凸显，但是其燃煤堆场紧挨着居民区，周边的居民对周边居住环境要求提高，燃煤锅炉厂正常经营受到居民的抵抗，因此原先的燃煤锅炉改成天然气锅炉具有可行性。随着环保政策趋紧，环保标准也在逐步提高，工业企业的环保配套投入成本较大，也促使了工业企业进行煤改气。
我们的观点：中国燃气（0384.HK）布局黑龙江和辽宁时间较久，投资规模大，正在加大吉林省投入，随着俄气输入，公司东北三省的项目将会受益，带动公司在东北三省气量的高速增长，我们维持公司的盈利预测，预计公司2020-2022财年营收分别为724.20、879.94和1030.48亿港元，归母净利润预测为100.62、121.32和139.99亿港元，EPS分别为1.93、2.32和2.68港元，维持“买入”评级，目标价维持为37.4港元。
风险提示：俄气进入的进度较慢，城镇煤改气进展缓慢，气源成本大幅上涨。
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