前进保险 (PGR.US): 毛利率反映行业竞争,目标价90美元
机构:中信证券
前进保险8月份业绩反映出行业在个人汽车保险细分市场的持续竞争,但公司2019年收入增速仍有望优于同业。8月份基本亏损率较去年同期下降约200个基点并达到2017年以来的最高点;保费增长略有加快,公司可能会为市场份额放弃部分利润。今年八个月中有七个月的储备开发受到不利影响。房地产部门的灾难险赔偿净增长0.2个基点。投资收益依然强劲,但由于新货币收益率的拖累,明年或许开始受压。虽然前进保险8月毛利率环比和同比均有上升,但我们相信其三季度汽车综合增长率仍有可能超越行业。2018年可能已经是公司保费增长的顶峰,但目前水平依然较高。尽管业务规模巨大,我们仍预计公司在多保险签单家庭等目标市场能进一步扩大份额。汽车保险的盈利能力仍然强劲,因此管理层有可能为获得市场份额而牺牲部分毛利率。
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