星展料港住宅樓市今年升5% 中環寫字樓租金見頂
星展香港房地產業分析師丘卓文表示,本港二手住宅市場自7月起交投放緩,潛在買家採取觀望態度,但暫時未見大量業主低市價急讓。一手方面,該行認為發展商或暫緩推售大額物業,但剛需盤(約700-800萬元)銷情仍然不錯,認為發展商將專注於推售這類大眾市場項目。丘氏預期未來三個月本港整體住宅樓價升幅收窄,全年料升5%,展望明年,由於該行預期本港經濟增長呈正數,加上供應有限,因此料樓價會平穩發展。
寫字樓方面,丘卓文指由於中資公司對中環寫字樓需求減弱,加上租戶整合,料中環寫字樓租金今年將會見頂,未來或有低單位數跌幅,但未必於今年出現。至於零售方面,預期下半年業主分成租金將會減少,但基本租金的影響則要待明年才開始浮現。若空置率持續上升,相信業主有減租壓力。
選股方面,丘卓文建議投資者選擇防守性較強的股份,例如領展(00823.HK)及置富(00778.HK),因為旗下商場處於民生區,受影響較少,加上股息回報率不低,若現時收集,下行壓力料不會太大。
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