李宁(2331.HK)趋势向好经营业绩增速大超预期上调至“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
公司披露盈利预喜公告，预计经营利润增速超过90%，归母净利润增速超过164%。根据公告，2019H1公司归母净利润较同期2.69亿增加164%，至不少于7.1亿元，大超预期。其中经营利润同增超过90%（贡献增量2.4亿），一次性非经营性利润（主要来自投资收益）贡献2亿增量。公司净利率有望超过11%（同期为6%）整体业绩增速大超预期。
运动行业高景气度，收入端实现超过30%的增长。在行业高景气度的背景下，作为复苏中的龙头国民品牌，李宁品牌Q1整体零售流水增速超过20%。其中，线下直营/加盟渠道流水增速为10%+/20%+，电商零售增速超过40%，根据我们的判断Q2流水保持高速增长，进而实现H1超过30%的收入增速。李宁品牌终端的增长主要来自于：1）主品牌产品回归大众定位，聚焦跑步、篮球、训练、羽毛球以及运动时尚五大核心品类，根据我们预测，运动时尚品类流水增速高于整体平均水平；2）渠道梳理到位，公司19Q1主品牌渠道数量为6310家，童装品牌为815家；3）多个系列表现佳，中国李宁系列走红引发的积极的市场反响带动主品牌影响力的提升，吸引年轻人的消费，童装品牌持续增长。
运营改善，经营利润率提升至少3PCTs。集团2018年底毛利率为48%，仍处爬坡复苏期，我们预计2019年H1毛利率实现提升1）渠道端随着终端流水增长，19年公司对加盟商的返点支持从高点逐步恢复到正常水平；2）中高端产品及“中国李宁”流水规模增长将拉升毛利率。费用率端，随着公司管理效率及营销费用利用效率提升带来费用率的下降：1）广告营销上聚焦核心品类，资源集中带来利用效率的提升；2）加强渠道费用管控实现费用率下降。综合判断公司经营利润率在2019H1实现至少3PCTs的提升。
展望未来，优质赛道+复苏增长共同带来业绩持续增长。基于李宁的品牌积淀和消费者对其认可度的复苏，我们长期看好集团销售端的改善和盈利能力的提升。展望2019年，公司卡位优质赛道，作为知名国民品牌，享有高于行业平均增速的终端流水增长。我们估计公司2019年新增渠道数量有望超过200家，同店增速保持双位数增长；随着毛利率的提升及终端控费效用的体现，净利率水平有望实现3PCTs以上提升。
投资建议。基于公司2019H1的业绩的超预期表现，我们上调公司2019-2021年净利润预测至12.5/14.3/17.0亿元（原9.5/12.0/14.3亿元），增速75.5%/13.6%/17.0%，现市值352亿港币，对应19年PE为23倍（其中2019年经营性净利润10.5亿元，对应19年PE29倍)，上调评级至“买入”评级。
风险提示：终端销售不达预期；盈利能力提升速度不达预期；管理层变动带来的运营变化。
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