浪潮国际(0596.HK)转云伊始首次覆盖给予“买入”评级目标价5.0港元
机构：申万宏源
评级：买入
目标价：5.0港元
浪潮国际是浪潮集团的子公司，专注于企业服务业务。公司业务主要是传统ERM服务，从2018年开始着重向云转型。公司有传统ERM、云业务、外包和物联网四个板块业务。2018年，传统的ERM服务占总收入的65%，云服务占8%。公司无意扩大其现有的外包业务，物联网业务的硬件收入配合软件服务的发展或稳步增长。我们预测19年EPS为0.23元港币(同比下降20%)，20年EPS为0.20元港币(同比上升4%)，21年EPS为0.28元港币(同比上升13%)。基于云业务8xPS，其他业务8xPE的分部加总模型，我们得出目标价格为5.0港元。股价仍有43%的上涨空间，我们首次覆盖给予买入评级。
更多SaaS产品即将上线。浪潮国际的云部署已经成型，虽然比金蝶晚不少，但仍处于云快速发展的行业红利时期。对于大型企业，浪潮国际推出了部分GS云产品，于2018年9月发布。今年9月，GS云将推出全云SaaS模块。该产品可与浪潮线下GS产品配合，形成客户定制需求的私有云、公有云或混合云。除了GS云之外，浪潮国际还与ODOO合资成立了一家公司于2018年4月推出了专为中小企业设计的PS云，浪潮持有合资企业75%的股权。对于小微企业，浪潮也有易云在线产品。
云业务质量和扩张。尽管2018年云业务里有约70%是私有云，但公司云业务都是基于SaaS商业模式搭建的。除了GScloud里面的实施费，剩下大部分都是可持续性的年费收入。公司预计到2023年整个云业务收入将达到总收入的50%，其中大约有一半来自GS云，40%以上来自PS云，PS云对公司来说是一个较大的挑战，因为在公司的传统业务主要服务于大型企业，中小型客户较少。挑战也是机遇。如果PS云的发展如公司预期，会为公司整体的发展带来一片新的天地。
首次覆盖给予买入评级。我们预测19年EPS为0.23元港币(同比下降20%)，20年EPS为0.20元港币(同比上升4%)，21年EPS为0.28元港币(同比上升13%)。由于云业务发展前期投入较多，因此利润会将有所下降。基于云业务8x PS，其他业务8x PE的分部加总模型，我们得出目标价格为5.0港元，相当于21 x 19 EPE or 2.5 x 19 EPB,or 21x20 EPE or 2.3x20 EPB。股价仍有43%上涨空间，我们首次覆盖给予买入评级。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
