The results of the 27th regular election for Japan’s House of Councillors held on 20 July were fully tallied in the early hours of the 21st: the Liberal Democratic Party–Komeito ruling coalition holds only 122 seats, below the 125 needed to maintain a majority, marking the first time since the LDP was founded in 1955 that it has become a minority in both houses simultaneously. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba late at night acknowledged a “severe defeat” but stressed he would keep the helm in order to complete next month’s tariff negotiations with the United States.

Ruling coalition wins only 122 seats, first time in 67 years both houses are minorities

Of the 125 seats contested this time, the LDP secured 39 and Komeito 8. Including uncontested seats, the coalition totals 122—more than 10 fewer than three years ago; the threshold for a majority in the House of Councillors is 125. Ishiba said he would “do everything to ensure the U.S. tariff talks are not shaken,” and for the time being rejected calls to step down.

The largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party captured 22 seats, firmly second in both constituency and proportional districts; the Democratic Party for the People made big gains with 17 seats to reach 22 overall; most notable was the right-leaning populist Sanseito, which leapt from just 1 seat to 15—14 of them won this time—quickly becoming the fourth-largest opposition force.

Turnout rises to 58.51 percent, prices and tariffs top voter concerns

Figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications show turnout at 58.51 percent, a 15-year high; one quarter of voters cast ballots early, a record.

The campaign was described as a mix of “resentment and anxiety”: over the past year the price of staple rice rose more than 18 percent, compounded by higher electricity bills and rents that are eroding real disposable income bit by bit. In pre-election TV debates, opposition parties brandished slogans of “tax cuts and higher wages,” hitting nerves with every line; polls showed prices and the possible 24 percent U.S. tariff threat tied as voters’ top worries.

Political outlook: 1 August tariff deadline looms

Losing control of the upper house means Ishiba’s government must rely on opposition persuasion in legislation; and if a new trade deal cannot be struck with Washington before 1 August, Japan may face tariffs of up to 24 percent on automobiles and steel-aluminum products. Within the LDP there are already calls for an extraordinary party congress; if talks falter or the budget is blocked, Ishiba may struggle to survive a no-confidence motion in the autumn Diet session.