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《大行報告》麥格理:今年內地互聯網行業首選拼多多(PDD.US)、騰訊(00700.HK)、攜程(TCOM.US)及中通快遞(ZTO.US)
麥格理髮表報告指出,儘管穩健的毛利對於內地互聯網行業仍然至關重要,但隨着投資者關注成本優化之外的財務可持續性,該行認爲市場份額提升及公司穩健增長,可能再次成爲推動業績的主要參數。 儘管內地互聯網行業的交易價格比歷史平均水平低兩個標準差,但該行認爲市場對今年的預測或過分樂觀,市場對撇除拼多多(PDD.US)在內的產業收入預測,較該行預期高出1%。雖然成本優化仍然以企業策略爲中心,然而尋求新收入來源的更緊迫目標可能會限制企業盈利上升空間。該行料擁有黏性客戶羣和卓越規模經濟的市場領導者最有可能跑贏大市。 此外,該行對地緣政治波動加劇持謹慎態度,但預期海外遊戲和電商仍是內地互聯網行業增長亮點,而人工智能及全球擴張或成爲關鍵的產業推動因素。該行料至2030年,人工智能將推動內容製作成本節省超過40%,使大規模生態系統如騰訊(00700.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK),以及垂直產業參與者如快手(01024.HK)及網易(09999.HK)將受惠。 該行建議在宏觀不確定性下,重點關注今年內地互聯網行業市佔率領先的企業,當中首選拼多多、騰訊、攜程(TCOM.US)及中通快遞(ZTO.US)(目標價及評級見另表)。
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