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《大行报告》麦格理:今年内地互联网行业首选拼多多(PDD.US)、腾讯(00700.HK)、携程(TCOM.US)及中通快递(ZTO.US)
麦格理发表报告指出,尽管稳健的毛利对於内地互联网行业仍然至关重要,但随着投资者关注成本优化之外的财务可持续性,该行认为市场份额提升及公司稳健增长,可能再次成为推动业绩的主要参数。 尽管内地互联网行业的交易价格比历史平均水平低两个标准差,但该行认为市场对今年的预测或过分乐观,市场对撇除拼多多(PDD.US)在内的产业收入预测,较该行预期高出1%。虽然成本优化仍然以企业策略为中心,然而寻求新收入来源的更紧迫目标可能会限制企业盈利上升空间。该行料拥有黏性客户群和卓越规模经济的市场领导者最有可能跑赢大市。 此外,该行对地缘政治波动加剧持谨慎态度,但预期海外游戏和电商仍是内地互联网行业增长亮点,而人工智能及全球扩张或成为关键的产业推动因素。该行料至2030年,人工智能将推动内容制作成本节省超过40%,使大规模生态系统如腾讯(00700.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK),以及垂直产业参与者如快手(01024.HK)及网易(09999.HK)将受惠。 该行建议在宏观不确定性下,重点关注今年内地互联网行业市占率领先的企业,当中首选拼多多、腾讯、携程(TCOM.US)及中通快递(ZTO.US)(目标价及评级见另表)。
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