避險!
摩根大通策略師Marko Kolanovic建議客戶進一步拋售股票並持有現金,原因包括債務上限談判仍懸而未決、經濟衰退風險上升以及美聯儲的鷹派立場。由Kolanovic領導的摩根大通策略師團隊削減了股票和公司債券的配置,同時增加了2%的現金投資。在大宗商品投資組合中,摩根大通還從能源投資轉向黃金,以滿足避險需求,並作爲債務上限風險對衝工具—這是摩根大通另一個旨在加強防禦姿態的舉措。
Kolanovic在給客戶的報告中寫道:“對美國債務上限問題迅速解決的希望,在一定程度上提振了市場人氣。儘管上週出現反彈,但風險資產未能突破今年的波動區間,如果說有什麼不同的話,信貸和大宗商品交易處於今年區間的低端。隨着股票交易接近今年高點,我們的模型投資組合上月再次出現虧損,這是四個月來的第三次虧損。”
週二,美國股市停滯不前,投資者正在等待華盛頓就聯邦政府將採取什麼措施避免災難性違約給出答案。美國總統拜登和共和黨衆議院議長麥卡錫星期一晚上進行了雙方所稱的“富有成效的討論”,但沒有達成協議。

在2022年市場暴跌的大部分時間里,Kolanovic是華爾街最大的多頭之一,但自今年以來,他對經濟前景惡化的看法發生了逆轉,在12月中旬、1月、3月以及現在5月——削減了摩根大通的模型股票配置。
更廣泛地說,Kolanovic和他的團隊表示,除了債務上限風險之外,股市似乎與債券市場和疲軟的經濟數據脫節。
他表示:“利率市場和股市之間仍存在分歧,前者預計美聯儲今年將降息,後者將這些可能的降息解讀爲對風險有利,而美聯儲的言論則更爲強硬。這種差距可能會以犧牲股市爲代價而縮小,因爲降息可能只會在需要避險的事件發生時纔會發生,如果利率保持在高位,它們應該會對股市市盈率和經濟活動造成壓力。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.